Drones and Davis

The Drone War that George Bush declared and Barack Obama escalated on Western Pakistan is at a temporary standstill.  Is it over?  By no means--in fact, the hard numbers prove quite the contrary.  Each successive year, the number killed has increased as noted in prior updates.

2004: 5
2005: 7
2006: 23
2007: 77
2008: 313
2009: 724
2010: 993
2011: 47 (to date)

Total: 2189
Bush Era: 413
Obama Era: 1776

The latest attack took place on Jan 23 2011.  Three drone strikes allegedly killed 13 in North Waziristan towns of Doga Mada Khel and Mando Khel. Although, Pakistani intelligence officials claimed the dead were militants, it is quite obvious the locals on the ground felt otherwise.  Up to 2000 protesters decried that the attacks killed civilians, including women and children.  Of course, the international media coverage of this was lacking, as the event was not as glamorous as the ouster of a Tunisian dictator.  With missile strikes raining down upon their villages, the protesting crowd was not endorsing America.  Not exactly an effective method to win the "hearts and minds" of those perceived to be against us.


Unless you have been living under a rock, educate yourself by watching Jersey Shore or are just  geopolitically-challenged, you have heard of Raymond Davis.  Davis is a former US Special Forces agent, who also owns Hyperion Protective Consultants LLC--a company that provides "loss and risk management professionals." (Dave Lindroff asserts that this is a phantom business and offers a very interesting summary and perspective of events)

To summarize, on Jan 27 2011, Davis shot and killed two Pakistani men in Lahore. The ensuing chaos resulted in the death of another person by a vehicle that accompanied him.  Davis was apprehended by Pakistani authorities and upon arrest he proclaimed diplomatic immunity.  This was backed up by statements that followed of the United States.  There has been much debate over the authenticity of his diplomatic status leading to a quasi-standoff between America and its ally, Pakistan.  Some neutral observers believe this "standoff" is being orchestrated for the consumption of the Pakistani public. Recently, Pakistan has stated it will make a decision on Davis's status within three weeks.  The exact nature of business of Davis is under considerable debate:  private security contractor/mercenary or CIA operative.  The fact that he was armed and allegedly had sensitive information regarding the tribal areas in northwest Pakistan, where drone attacks occur, further complicate matters (the Times of India has speculated that he runs the drone program).

Davis and the US claim the men he shot were thieves in the process of attacking him--something that is clearly not believed by the Pakistani public, given Davis's credentials.  Recently, Pakistani officials leaked to ABC News that the two men killed were ISI (Pakistani special intelligence) agents.  If so, were they tracking Davis?  Was it espionage deal gone awry?  Few know the answer to this.  Official reports have Davis currently in a full security prison in Lahore. Conflicting, leaked reports have him living in luxury with access to television, mobile phone and alcohol--a banned substance in Pakistan.  Like many aspects of this case, it is unclear if this is true, but it has further infuriated the average Pakistani.

As Pakistan is assessing Davis's state of immunity, the US has been applying both public and private pressure to have him released.  John Kerry has visited Pakistan and assures that Davis will be prosecuted in America.  There have been quiet threats of suspending the $2 billion in military aid to Pakistan and the cancellation of a would-be meeting between Hillary Clinton and the Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi.  Pakistan holds some leverage (the possession of Davis) but clearly the upper hand resides with the US. This is true considering that the Pakistan governmental hierarchy is strongly aligned, even co-opted by America.  There have been some cries amongst the Pakistani public to exchange Davis for Aafia Siddiqui, a Pakistani national convicted of terrorism by American court serving an 86 year sentence in a Texas prison.  Most Pakistanis believe she was innocent of the crimes--but such a swap borders on the impossible given that the Pakistani government also considers her a criminal and has expressed no desire for her return or freedom.

Given the strong cooperation between the US and Pakistan regimes, the prediction is that Davis will be released in due time to American custody.  Such a release, without any concessions by the US, will inevitably create a firestorm on a Pakistani street that is quite invested in this case. There are strong feelings that these were unjustified illicit killings, even assassinations, of their fellow countrymen. Relatives of one of the deceased has publicly called for Davis to be hanged. Furthermore, a spouse of one of those killed, has committed suicide--in despair, over a perceived lack of justice. What exactly the concession will be (assuming Davis is released), if there is one, is unknown. The Pakistani public is far more demanding than its government--it is within the realm of  possibility that Davis may have already been transferred to US authorities, if not for the backlash.  Journalist Jeremy Scahill echoed Pakistani sentiment on Twitter: "Serious question:  What would the US do if a Pakistani 'diplomat' shot two FBI agents on US soil?"

The one item of note--is the complete absence of drone attacks since the beginning of this ordeal.  As mentioned, the most recent drone attack occurred on Jan 23.  The Davis incident took place on Jan 27.  It has been 25 days since the last bombing and given their frequency, it is likely more than a coincidence.  Is this the concession the US is willing to make?  Highly doubtful--but it seems to be at least a negotiating tactic as this drama plays out.  Of course, this could be a moot point if Obama authorizes a drone sortie tomorrow.