Last uber-political post for a while

This post originally appeared on the now defunct blog, Team Sakib.

The situation in Pakistan seemed to be an interesting subplot in Mid-East geopolitics. The underpopulated rural province of Balochistan is the cause of much concern. It is the center of the country's petroleum projects, specifically the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India oil pipeline and the Chinese funded Gawadar City port. The province has always been extremely rich in natural gas (Pakistan's only energy resource), and there has been 30-40 years of speculation of hidden petroleum reserves beneath the gas fields. It also receives almost none of the government's development budget, which goes to the predominantly urban provinces of Punjab and Sindh. Balochis are beginning to sound like the Bengalis did before the 1971 Civil War. Their provincial leaders are trying to leverage the federal government into giving the province more autonomy and a large share of the profits from the two projects and natural gas. Obvious Musharraff (a Punjabi himself) isnt too keen on this, and he's instituted a military occupation of much of Balochistan's border region with Afghanistan, the area where the newly formed Balochistan Liberation Army seems most popular and feasible. This of course is the same region, Waziristan, where the US claims Al Qaeda is sitting. The US recently bombed a village in this region, putting the Musharraff government in a tough spot between defending US actions and maintaining good relations with the US and standing up for Balochistan.
The US greatly benefits from political instability in Balochistan. The Chinese and the Indians will be reluctant to invest billions of dollars in Pakistan if Balochistan is unstable, and that will keep the two countries from getting cheaper and guaranteed access to oil that will come from the IPI pipeline and Gawadar City. The US bombing really ratchetted up the political pressures in Balochistan. The Balochis are pissed that the Pakistani government would let this thing go down (18 civilian deaths according to the American estimates, many more according to the Balochis) without so much as a thread of dissent against American bombing of Pakistan. Of course, the likely recourse from Balochis will likely be bombings of western interests in Pakistani cities, interests like Kentucky Fried Chicken restaurants. More of this kind of violence and the Chinese and Indians will be scared away.
With the alleged thread of Al Qaeda presence in Waziristan, the US can continue to justify bombing the area virtually forever, ensuring that the retributional violence continue to escalate. The US by no means would favor a free and soverign Balochistan, but a tumultuous Balochistan with civil unrest, lawlessness, insecurity, all helps block emerging petroleum consumers China and India from getting access to Central Asian and Iranian oil.
If Iran played this game, it would be called "state sponsored terrorism". For the US, its business as usual.